China’s Real Economic Crisis is oversupply and effect the market price become lower while the quality of product is worse and lead to the tariff policy which effected to shipping products to third parties such as: Cambodia, Brazil, Vietnam and Thailand to avoid tax. The G-7 warned China’s action as #harmfulovercapacity. – Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Published August 6, 2024.

How Will Change Come to Beijing? China engages in even more confrontational acts that risk sparking conflicts not just with Taiwan but also with Japan and Southeast Asia counties. During Qing Dynasty since 1644 once quoted “Fugua Qiangbing, Rich Country and Strong Army” and “Zongti Xiyong, Chinese for essence, Western for usage”. China would not be isolated, but it would struggle to build trust and encourage other governments to accept the norms it wants to define the world: untrammeled state power and the subordination of civil rights and freedoms to economic and development goals. Such any kind of war would create a lose-lose scenario for everyone. Chinese officials may reject comparisons with Russian actions in Ukraine or the U.S. invasion of Iraq, but decision-makers in Southeast Asia will find it difficult to trust Beijing. China will find it much easier than liberal Western states to speak to the needs of people in large countries susceptible to mountain environmental disasters, such as Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan whose large populations have rising consumer demands. It can frame its green offerings not just as a matter of practical necessity but also of justice, supplying what the Western countries principally responsible for this crisis cannot. – Rana Mitter, Published April 22, 2025.

Beijing Fights to Be Treated as America’s Equal on the World Stage. Beijing has accused the U.S. of hypocrisy and double standards – while responding in kind to Washington’s moves. The great powers rig the international order in their favor, but their focus is as much on maintaining privileged position as rule-makers in world politics as it is on securing material benefits. The UN security council, the UN general assembly, the World trade organization, the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, and the G-20 are institutions that have been both open to Chinese leadership and procedurally fair regard to Chinese participation. But Beijing has been frustrated by the slow pace of reform, and in response it has created and supported new institutions, such as the Asian infrastructure investment bank and the new development bank within the UN framework convention on climate changes, the responsibility in tackling global warming aim to contributed to solve the problem. The United States and its allies have repeatedly used human right aspect of the international order to single out Beijing for its human rights record as China limited leadership prospects in these institutions within an order dominated by liberal democracies. Beijing views this situation as a denial of China’s rightful status and given the U.S.’s own global human right record as China wants to have greater say and become top leadership positions at international financial institutions such IMF and World Bank. – Rohan Mukherjee, Published May 19, 2023.

Despite the “peak China” controversy itself decline of real estate and infrastructure policy. Xi’s anticorruption policy is affected himself with no allies supported his back on the board of administration but still strong regime with his new policy focusing investment on green energy, batteries and electric vehicle. His previous work on BRICS (Brazil, Russian, India, China and South Africa) for new development on geopolitical and economy awaken U.S. to aware they might not use USD currency in their trade. And One Road One Belt of Xi policy also effectively potential for economic growth on whole region level but also reduce the important or necessity of U.S. Perhaps, this might be claim from U.S. that China tried to lead the world with illiberal belief, as Xi wants to reform global governance to better protect Chinese interests and to promote illiberal values such as expanded state control, constrained markets, and limits on individual freedoms. Not to mention on China’s civilian spy agency, the Ministry of state security. The office publicly comments on numerous hot-button issues, including U.S.-Chinese relations and alleged foreign spy operations. – Evan S. Medeiros – published April 24, 2024.

Trump’s administration interpreted the trade war same as poker game: zero-sum game, while one loses all and the other win all. But the fact of trading is not zero-sum game, instead it’s a positive sum: the better you do, the better I do. In trade, you get it back immediately, in the form of the goods and services you buy. When U.S. raise high tariff tax of China, it doesn’t solve diplomacy issues in U.S. economy but likely cause new problems such shortage of pharmaceutical stocks, cheap electronic chips and critical minerals. U.S. productive capacity would decline rather than improve, which would only increase the leverage that China and others have over the U.S. – Adam S. Posen, published April 9, 2025.

When we look to China from outside, we might see China is the World’s second biggest economy – but also in reality, China is weak on household spending, while Chinese people rather save up their money than spending diplomatically. Before 2014, the nation’s economy was driven from private sector investment for almost 60% of all investment, but after Xi become the top leadership in 2014, he changed the center on investment to under government controlled and that effected the private reduce to 50% nowadays. Even though China’s GDP fell from 76% in 2021 to 67% in 2023, still it was 20% bigger than it had been in 2019 while U.S. was only 8% bigger. The misconceptions that U.S. toward China might lead to the U.S. overestimate their own ability to sustain he is deepening of economic and security ties with Asian partners. – Nicholas R. Lardy, published April 2, 2024.

The trade truce. For China, is the trade lead the peace, or it started the war. The original mechanism of trade is to exchange to goods instead of war to win the resource. But somehow the trade as of today might lead as indirect war like trade war now between U.S. vs China. Despite the understanding that war will happened eventually even its with or without trade or not. – Stephen G. Brroks, published June 18, 2024.

China style of government was no politic no problems. Meaning if you are individual would like to run some business in China, as long as you not involve with politic of the country, you will survive eventually. But this considered indirect censorship meanwhile U.S. stopped students from China that wants to come to study in U.S. or research and development because to concern nation’s security on intellectual property theft from U.S. companies such cybercrime, reverse engineering, and old-fashioned industrial espionage by China. Even though Chinese students and business flowed to Canada, Mexico, Singapore, U.K. and Vietnam, they are improving their own economic strength and weakening the CCP’s hold at home. Meanwhile in China the rate of unemployed is rising especially those who got higher education.

Conclusion: It’s not impossible to predict future of China, even though all the previous prediction are wrong. #mercantilist vs #protectionism #uncleashing American energy, the side effect from what Trump do is, make people jobless and make more expensive of green power. Escalation dominance by bring higher tariff but China still can find new market. Instead of zero-sum game, the great power should consider on mutual benefit. Peak China reform IMF and WTO corporation challenged HRC. While U.S. also have but why in the name of the world must feel thread from China’s action? Why make it obvious double standard? Status co-power VS Revisionary power. International order can change without the war between exist great power vs rising power. (China VS U.S.)

Reference to Prof. Chaiwat – August 2025.